Powell’s comments weren’t that different from Clarida

The Powell speech is over and the stock … Continue Reading…


Trump is making it harder for the Fed to ease

Trump’s bellyaching about the Fed … Continue Reading…


The credit cycle is now turning down

I am now stuffed with Turkey after days … Continue Reading…


Expect political trench warfare as the economy slows

This was me in October: The right narrat… Continue Reading…


Countdown to inversion: US Treasury curve flattening has resumed

The bear steepening from late August was… Continue Reading…


Is Trump’s goose cooked on the economy?

The impression you get from a recent pie… Continue Reading…


More on the meltdown in oil (and a cut in oil capex)

We’re getting to the point now whe… Continue Reading…


Predicting the political economy for the 2020 US presidential election

In recent months, I have mostly written … Continue Reading…


Confirming a second global growth slowdown as Trump tries to consolidate power

The big picture: deflation is back There… Continue Reading…


The bear market in crude

Really quickly here: WTI has traded down… Continue Reading…